Saturday, March 22, 2008

Update on GE. I'm half right

In my last entry I went over a trade I made on GE. I said the stock would reach a target price of 38.25 by the 15th of March. Well, I was wrong. On the date at least. GE shot almost straight up this week and looks like it will reach that target soon. Look at Fig 1.

Fig.1

The stock shot straight up starting on the 17th of March, Monday. I hit my stop on the 17th for my 5% profit and was very happy. Since, then I have heard from the TV experts to buy GE including my favorite, Jim Cramer. I alway feel good when I call it right. With the market the way it is these days, it has been hard to find a stock that is headed the right way for me.

If the experts are right about the market then we have hit the bottom and happy days are here again. We will see. Just bought Pepsico(PEP) last week. We'll see how that trade is going on my next entry.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Trade Updates - DOW

Well it has been ugly out there. I thought I would look at some of past posts and see if I was right or wrong with my predictions.

The first one is the DOW. I predicted that the DOW would reach the 13,400 level by end of Feb.
I was wrong. It did go up to 12,750 level but, failed to reach the mark I had set and seems to be headed down to the 11,600 level with in the next week.


Fig. 1

Looking at Fig 1. you can see I have drawn the long, medium and short term trend lines. According to Dr. Andrews, the lower prong of the pitchfork acts as support. So, the next move I am following is to see if the Dow will bounce off of that level of support or will it go through it and head further down. You can see that the 11,600 is also the level of resistance that was hit in Nov., 06. Even if the market goes back up to 12,500 we will still be in a downtrend on the DOW. Conclusion. I missed this one at least for now.

Monday, March 3, 2008

GE.trade. Was I right or wrong?

In my last post, I said I would go through a whole trade. Well, I was traveling and my internet connect was intermitten but, I did have time to buy GE while I was traveling. So, let's look at the trade so far.

Fig.1

I Bought the GE Jan 10 $30 call leap for 7.00 on the 19th of Feb. with a target price of 38.25 on March 5th. If we look at the chart(Fig.1) am suppose to reach my target on March 5th. Will I? No way! Will it reach the target? Yes, I think eventually it will. The stock is in an up trend and when I look at an earlier Action line I see the the Reaction line formed early. Approximately, 11 days early. Because the first Reaction line was early I expect the next Reaction Line to be late by 11 days. Looking at Fig 2. what I have done is I have made an adjustment in my target day by the eleven day gap and now the target date is the 15th of March.


Fig. 2

I will monitor this GE trade and update the blog as the trade progresses.