Where is the market now?

It looks like the DOW is going to continue down and could hit the 12,200 by the end of July. Or it could trade sideways and not reach that low. The DOW continues in a down trend until it breaks through the trend line shown as the yellow line in figure 1. Right now I can't tell if the DOW is going down further toward the 12,200 level. We need to watch and see if the price goes through the upper median line on the red pitchfork or heads down to the intersection of the red and blue pitchforks. I have circled the area in yellow.

Figure 1.

Now let's look at the Qs. Figure 2 shows that the Qs may test the$50 -$51 highs later this week in to next week. Or this may be the start of a downward move toward the bottom ML of the pitchfork. Again, we will have to wait and see.

Fig. 2

Lastly, my updated watch list. Baxter(BAX), Intel(INTC), Colke(KO),Companhia Vale Do Rio(RIO), McDonalds(MCD), Illinois Tool(ITW). I dropped Johnson and Johnson(JNJ) it made its move too quickly for me to catch it.

Trade Updates - DOW

Well it has been ugly out there. I thought I would look at some of past posts and see if I was right or wrong with my predictions.

The first one is the DOW. I predicted that the DOW would reach the 13,400 level by end of Feb.
I was wrong. It did go up to 12,750 level but, failed to reach the mark I had set and seems to be headed down to the 11,600 level with in the next week.

Fig. 1

Looking at Fig 1. you can see I have drawn the long, medium and short term trend lines. According to Dr. Andrews, the lower prong of the pitchfork acts as support. So, the next move I am following is to see if the Dow will bounce off of that level of support or will it go through it and head further down. You can see that the 11,600 is also the level of resistance that was hit in Nov., 06. Even if the market goes back up to 12,500 we will still be in a downtrend on the DOW. Conclusion. I missed this one at least for now.