Where Will the DOW Go From Here?

As an Investor I go to investing sites and they say "look if you bought XYZ stock following my system you would have made all this money because it went up 10,000% over the last 1 month. Just look at the chart." But, what about the trades that went wrong? Oh, I won't find out about those trades until I pay you a lot of money. Great. Sometimes, I wander if the market gurus make money not from their trades but, from selling you their secret systems on how to trade. I like to watch them recommend stocks on Saturday morning. One guy says this is a great stock and the next guy says I hate it that stock, it stinks. But, I digress.

I hope this site is not going to be like that. This blog is my personal trading journal where you can follow along on my trades as they unfold. You will see my mistakes, my wins and loses. So, with that in mind here I go.

Let's start with the DOW(Fig 1). First I look at the trend. It is still down. Then I draw an Andrews Pitchfork and somewhere along the center line is my target price. Dr. Andrews stated that the price will touch the center median line 80% of the time. But , what I want to know is when and what price are going to touch the median line.

Fig.1. Charts generated by Track 'n Trade

Next, I add the the Action/Reaction lines(Fig. 2). By adding the Action/Reaction lines(yellow lines) I now have a target price and time frame. My target is shown by the yellow circle on the chart. The price target of approx 12,610 was hit on Weds. Jan 30th. The target time I came up with is next Weds. Feb 6th. So, starting Monday, I will look for the DOW to start to reverse it's upward movement. It should start to go back down following the yellow reaction line on the chart. I will use the MACD histogram to confirm this change in direction. Now, as to how far the Dow will go down. I will be able to make that prediction when a new pivot point forms. The pivot point forms when there are 2 straight trading days of lower highs. At that time I can draw my next pitchfork and get a new target price and time frame.

Fig. 2. Charts generated by Track 'n Trade

We will wait and see if the reversal happens and if so, I will post the DOW with a new pitchfork and prediction with it. If I am wrong I won't need to tell you. You will know. But, next I will Post a trade I am in the middle of. One that I was in before I started this new way of trading. A trade that went wrong and now I am Managing until it is profitable.