Winners and Stocks to Watch

So, I was wrong about the DOW. It hit 13,135 on May 19th. Now, it is heading down. How far? I can't tell yet. It is at the 50% retracement level from the high on May 19th. You can see the from The chart in Figure 1 that DOW is still in a down trend and could from the pitchfork in blue that it could go back down to the 12,000.

Figure 1.

Did better with the Qs. I was right on target. It hit $50.47 on on May 19th. So, I'm 50% right so far.

Second, let's look at some recent winning trades.

International Game Tech (IGT) - bought 1/10 30.00 on 5/8 and sold it on 5/13 for a 8.79% profit in 5 days.

Western Digital (WDC) - bought 1/10 30.00 on 4/21 and sold it on 5/14 for a 20.93% profit in 24 days.

Coke (KO) - bought on 5/21 the 1/10 55.00 and sold it on 5/23 for a12.16% profit in 2 days.

Next, here are 2 new trades that I have not exited yet. First, Colgate Palmolive (CL) bought the 1/10 70.00 on 5/21.

The other trade is Saint Jude Medical(STJ). Bought the 1/10 40.00 on 5/23. The chart in figure 2 shows that I believe it headed to 45 by the middle of June. Of course, remember using the system I use I don't have to wait until it reaches 45.00 to make my 5% profit so, if I am off on my prediction I can still have a profitable trade.

Figure 2.

Lastly, some stocks I that am watching Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), Baxter International(BAX) and Intel(INTC).

Weekly Pitchfork update on the Market. Happy days Again?

I thought I would change my focus a bit on this blog. I will look to see where the DOW and Qs are headed on a weekly basis using Andrews Pitchfork and Action/Reaction lines. In addition to looking at the the market I will look at stocks that I am looking to buy.

Are happy days here again? First, let's look at the DOW. As I write this entry the DOW is up 170 on the day at 12,532. But is it going to go up or down from here. Well, I can't tell yet from the daily chart. Looking at the chart in Fig 1. we see that the Dow is at a reaction line.

Fig. 1.

It is marked on the chart as R2. The DOW touched the ML of the pitchfork on the 7th of April and has followed the reaction line down since. The high on April 7th was a test of the 12,700 level that seems to be a main level of resistance for the DOW at this time. It has reached this area 3 times since Feb of this year. If we can break though this area I feel it will signal that we are back in an up trend in the DOW. Until then it looks like we will continue to stay in this sideways channel.

We may be able to predict the Dow by looking at the weekly Dow chart. We see in Fig. 2 that if the Pitchfork holds, we will break out of the resistance level I mentioned earlier on the daily chart by the end of April/begining of May.

Fig. 2.

Now for the Qs. Looking at the chart in Fig 3. we can see that the Qs are headed up and if the Pitchfork is right the we should be at $50.50 by late May when the 2 pitchforks intersect.

Fig 3.

Update on GE. I'm half right

In my last entry I went over a trade I made on GE. I said the stock would reach a target price of 38.25 by the 15th of March. Well, I was wrong. On the date at least. GE shot almost straight up this week and looks like it will reach that target soon. Look at Fig 1.

Fig.1

The stock shot straight up starting on the 17th of March, Monday. I hit my stop on the 17th for my 5% profit and was very happy. Since, then I have heard from the TV experts to buy GE including my favorite, Jim Cramer. I alway feel good when I call it right. With the market the way it is these days, it has been hard to find a stock that is headed the right way for me.

If the experts are right about the market then we have hit the bottom and happy days are here again. We will see. Just bought Pepsico(PEP) last week. We'll see how that trade is going on my next entry.

GE.trade. Was I right or wrong?

In my last post, I said I would go through a whole trade. Well, I was traveling and my internet connect was intermitten but, I did have time to buy GE while I was traveling. So, let's look at the trade so far.

Fig.1

I Bought the GE Jan 10 $30 call leap for 7.00 on the 19th of Feb. with a target price of 38.25 on March 5th. If we look at the chart(Fig.1) am suppose to reach my target on March 5th. Will I? No way! Will it reach the target? Yes, I think eventually it will. The stock is in an up trend and when I look at an earlier Action line I see the the Reaction line formed early. Approximately, 11 days early. Because the first Reaction line was early I expect the next Reaction Line to be late by 11 days. Looking at Fig 2. what I have done is I have made an adjustment in my target day by the eleven day gap and now the target date is the 15th of March.

Fig. 2

I will monitor this GE trade and update the blog as the trade progresses.

Where Will the DOW Go From Here?

As an Investor I go to investing sites and they say "look if you bought XYZ stock following my system you would have made all this money because it went up 10,000% over the last 1 month. Just look at the chart." But, what about the trades that went wrong? Oh, I won't find out about those trades until I pay you a lot of money. Great. Sometimes, I wander if the market gurus make money not from their trades but, from selling you their secret systems on how to trade. I like to watch them recommend stocks on Saturday morning. One guy says this is a great stock and the next guy says I hate it that stock, it stinks. But, I digress.

I hope this site is not going to be like that. This blog is my personal trading journal where you can follow along on my trades as they unfold. You will see my mistakes, my wins and loses. So, with that in mind here I go.

Let's start with the DOW(Fig 1). First I look at the trend. It is still down. Then I draw an Andrews Pitchfork and somewhere along the center line is my target price. Dr. Andrews stated that the price will touch the center median line 80% of the time. But , what I want to know is when and what price are going to touch the median line.

Fig.1. Charts generated by Track 'n Trade

Next, I add the the Action/Reaction lines(Fig. 2). By adding the Action/Reaction lines(yellow lines) I now have a target price and time frame. My target is shown by the yellow circle on the chart. The price target of approx 12,610 was hit on Weds. Jan 30th. The target time I came up with is next Weds. Feb 6th. So, starting Monday, I will look for the DOW to start to reverse it's upward movement. It should start to go back down following the yellow reaction line on the chart. I will use the MACD histogram to confirm this change in direction. Now, as to how far the Dow will go down. I will be able to make that prediction when a new pivot point forms. The pivot point forms when there are 2 straight trading days of lower highs. At that time I can draw my next pitchfork and get a new target price and time frame.

Fig. 2. Charts generated by Track 'n Trade

We will wait and see if the reversal happens and if so, I will post the DOW with a new pitchfork and prediction with it. If I am wrong I won't need to tell you. You will know. But, next I will Post a trade I am in the middle of. One that I was in before I started this new way of trading. A trade that went wrong and now I am Managing until it is profitable.