Monday, June 2, 2008

Where is the market now?

It looks like the DOW is going to continue down and could hit the 12,200 by the end of July. Or it could trade sideways and not reach that low. The DOW continues in a down trend until it breaks through the trend line shown as the yellow line in figure 1. Right now I can't tell if the DOW is going down further toward the 12,200 level. We need to watch and see if the price goes through the upper median line on the red pitchfork or heads down to the intersection of the red and blue pitchforks. I have circled the area in yellow.

Figure 1.

Now let's look at the Qs. Figure 2 shows that the Qs may test the$50 -$51 highs later this week in to next week. Or this may be the start of a downward move toward the bottom ML of the pitchfork. Again, we will have to wait and see.

Fig. 2

Lastly, my updated watch list. Baxter(BAX), Intel(INTC), Colke(KO),Companhia Vale Do Rio(RIO), McDonalds(MCD), Illinois Tool(ITW). I dropped Johnson and Johnson(JNJ) it made its move too quickly for me to catch it.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Winners and Stocks to Watch

So, I was wrong about the DOW. It hit 13,135 on May 19th. Now, it is heading down. How far? I can't tell yet. It is at the 50% retracement level from the high on May 19th. You can see the from The chart in Figure 1 that DOW is still in a down trend and could from the pitchfork in blue that it could go back down to the 12,000.

Figure 1.

Did better with the Qs. I was right on target. It hit $50.47 on on May 19th. So, I'm 50% right so far.

Second, let's look at some recent winning trades.

International Game Tech (IGT) - bought 1/10 30.00 on 5/8 and sold it on 5/13 for a 8.79% profit in 5 days.

Western Digital (WDC) - bought 1/10 30.00 on 4/21 and sold it on 5/14 for a 20.93% profit in 24 days.

Coke (KO) - bought on 5/21 the 1/10 55.00 and sold it on 5/23 for a12.16% profit in 2 days.

Next, here are 2 new trades that I have not exited yet. First, Colgate Palmolive (CL) bought the 1/10 70.00 on 5/21.

The other trade is Saint Jude Medical(STJ). Bought the 1/10 40.00 on 5/23. The chart in figure 2 shows that I believe it headed to 45 by the middle of June. Of course, remember using the system I use I don't have to wait until it reaches 45.00 to make my 5% profit so, if I am off on my prediction I can still have a profitable trade.

Figure 2.

Lastly, some stocks I that am watching Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), Baxter International(BAX) and Intel(INTC).