Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Weekly Pitchfork update on the Market. Happy days Again?

I thought I would change my focus a bit on this blog. I will look to see where the DOW and Qs are headed on a weekly basis using Andrews Pitchfork and Action/Reaction lines. In addition to looking at the the market I will look at stocks that I am looking to buy.

Are happy days here again? First, let's look at the DOW. As I write this entry the DOW is up 170 on the day at 12,532. But is it going to go up or down from here. Well, I can't tell yet from the daily chart. Looking at the chart in Fig 1. we see that the Dow is at a reaction line.


Fig. 1.

It is marked on the chart as R2. The DOW touched the ML of the pitchfork on the 7th of April and has followed the reaction line down since. The high on April 7th was a test of the 12,700 level that seems to be a main level of resistance for the DOW at this time. It has reached this area 3 times since Feb of this year. If we can break though this area I feel it will signal that we are back in an up trend in the DOW. Until then it looks like we will continue to stay in this sideways channel.

We may be able to predict the Dow by looking at the weekly Dow chart. We see in Fig. 2 that if the Pitchfork holds, we will break out of the resistance level I mentioned earlier on the daily chart by the end of April/begining of May.

Fig. 2.

Now for the Qs. Looking at the chart in Fig 3. we can see that the Qs are headed up and if the Pitchfork is right the we should be at $50.50 by late May when the 2 pitchforks intersect.

Fig 3.